Monday, October 2, 2017

2017 Cubs season in review




Image Courtesy of Bing

These clearly are not the Cubs I grew up with. And that's a good thing. After rooting for the Cubs for 50+ apparently all my Cubs angst wasn't dissipated by one world championship. Thankfully, these Cubs don't seem to feel the burden of Cubs failures of seasons past. I truly think even good Cubs teams in years gone by felt the burden of dismal past Cubs failures. 

Last year, not only did the Cubs win their first world championship in 108 years, they did it in dramatic fashion. It was very unCub like. After a sluggish start, the Cubs were the best team in the NL after the all star break. They won 15 of their last 19 games and dealt their closest division competitors, the Brewers and Cardinals, devastating blows along the way. I don't know how the Cubs will do in the playoffs, but if they don't win it all, it won't be because they choked. Having said all of that, here are some thoughts on the 2017 Cubs regular season.

Catcher: Willson Contreras is now a star. He's a prolific hitter, has a great arm, and is improving defensively. He gets a little hyper at times, but clearly is maturing. As time goes on, I look for Willson to spend more time in left field to get his bat in the lineup. Alex Avilla was a nice pickup. Alex is decent defensively at provides a left handed bat, but I look for him to move on this winter. Rene Rivera was picked up from the Mets late in the season and provided good defense and more offense than could reasonably expected. Look for the Cubs to retain him for the 2018 season. Switch hitting Victor Caratini looks to have a future with the team. Caratini swings a good bat and is versatile. He has some of the traits of Contreras, only with a lesser arm and a little less offense. Going forward, the Cubs are well stocked at catcher.

Infield: Simply put, the Cubs have the best infield I've ever seen. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are franchise cornerstones and should continue to be for years. While Bryant didn't quite match his MVP season, he was still quite good. Javy Baez continues to grow as a player. His OPS was .796, and that's based mostly on his power rather than his on base skills. I truly believe than Baez is , to some degree, a victim of his own versatility. Javy filled in nicely at short when Addison Russell was on the shelf. He got better the longer he played there. He would do the same thing if Joe Maddon left him at second. Addison Russell had a rough season, on and off the field. Still, as the season wore down and Russell got some playing time he showed what a high ceiling he has. The Cubs are at their best with Russell at short and Baez at second. I'm concerned about Russell's shoulder issues, which seem to give him problems throwing at times. Beyond that, he could be a power hitting, gold glove caliber shortstop for years to come.

While Ben Zobrist earned his contract with last year's performance, he looks to be in decline. Ben was plagued by nagging injuries during the season so it's hard to get a read on just where he's at. Overall, he seems to be slowing down at the plate and in the field. Tommy LaStella has one truly outstanding skill, he's a line drive hitting machine. He can handle velocity and is outstanding coming in as a pinch hitter. While LaStella's value to the team may be subtle, he's a definite asset. If the Cubs have any issues in the infield, it might be lack of a backup at shortstop beyond Javy Baez. When Russell was out with an injury, Baez provided excellent play at short, but there was really no one beyond him. That issue may be addressed in the off season.

Outfield: This area is somewhat muddled. While muddled, it isn't bad, it's just there is some question of how the pieces fit together. Jason Heyward plays a great right field, seems to be great teammate, and does everything you could want of a baseball player. Except hit. That's kind of a big deal. Jason seems to have settled in at a modest level of offensive production. While he's not a bad player, he's not going to play up to his contract. Albert Almora Jr. plays excellent defensive in center, crushes left handed pitching, and struggles to get playing time. I'd like to see Joe Maddon play him more. I'm curious to see what he could do with regular playing time. Ian Happ is a power hitting switch hitter who made an immediate impact on the Cubs. I think he should be the regular left fielder. Ian also spends some time at second, so he has even more value going forward. Kyle Schwarber had a miserable first half of the season but rallied in the second half to finish with 30 home runs and an OPS of .782. Not great, but a nice recovery. I still think Kyle gets traded to an AL team for pitching.

John Jay had a really nice year, getting a surprising amount of playing time in felt and center. As a contact hitting, on base guy, he proved really handy, especially considering the struggles of Kyle Schawrber. Ben Zobrist also spent some time in left and right but his lack of range is becoming an issue. The Cubs have a decent amount of outfield talent going forward. The trick will be for Joe Maddon to maximize it.

Starting pitching: Cubs starting pitching took a step backward this season. Jon Lester struggled with health and command issues. It's really hard to say what to expect of Jon going forward. Still, even if Jon never wins another game for the Cubs, he was worth is contract. Jake Arrieta started off slowly, but got better in the second half only to experience hamstring issues late in the season. Overall, Jake wasn't bad but wasn't the dominant Jake Arrrieta of the last couple of seasons. I suspect he'll leave the Cubs this winter. Kyle Hendricks also dealt with hand/finger issues early in the season. He got better and better as the season wore on. I think he's the best starter the Cubs have, but doesn't seem to get the respect he should, even from his own manager.

Jose Quintana looked to be just what the Cubs needed when they got here from the White Sox mid season. He's been hit and miss. Based on what the Cubs gave up for him, there should be more hit. If he's not one of the Cubs first three post season starters, they paid too much for him. John Lackey wasn't quite as sharp as he was last year he finished the 2017 season with a record of 12-12 and an ERA of 4.59. Honestly, while I'm not a fan of Lackey's style, the Cubs could do worse than bring him back as their fifth starter next season. Mike Montgomery has been this year's Travis Wood, effective as a starter and reliever. While he may have more value in the pen, he's certainly a capable starter if called upon. I look for the Cubs to add a starting pitcher in the off season.

Relief pitching: Wade Davis was lights out as the Cubs closer. I would hope the Cubs bring him back next season. Carl Edwards Jr. continues to grow as a major league reliever. He has the potential to be a closer. Pedro Strop and his lop sided cap had another solid season out of the Cubs pen. Justin Wilson came over from the Tigers with the idea he could be the Cubs closer next season. Let's just say he has disappointed thus far. He has shown signs of getting his act together recently. If he does, that's a huge plus for the Cubs. Brian Duensing was a nice surprise as a lefty coming out of the Cubs pen. He did well against righties and lefties. Koji Uehara was victimized by the long ball and it appears age may have caught up to him. Hector Rondon was also slowed by injuries, but has looked good recently. I'm afraid health issues will always cloud his value.

Manager: Joe Maddon is not a perfect manager. He can be stubborn and tinkers with his lineup too much. Having said that, the Cubs respond well to pressure. That's a recent development. It can be traced to the time Joe took the managerial reigns. That's probably not a coincidence. And because of that, Joe Maddon is an excellent manager.

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