Tuesday, November 13, 2018

MLB's free agent marker is one thing, the free agent aftermarket is another



Image Courtesy of Bing


What do you do if you’re a MLB general manager who wants to get a high priced free agent but your organization doesn’t have the financial resources to be a player in the big name free agent market?  You wait a couple of years and buy low on a formerly high priced free agent.  After a couple of years many times teams are desperate to unload some of their pricey acquisitions to the point of paying part of their contract to get rid of them.  Some of those players could be bargains compared to the current crop of free agents.  It’s like buying a car.  When you drive a new car off the lot, it immediately depreciates.  That’s generally true of high priced free agents.  If you don’t have unlimited resources you buy a good used car, or free agent, and let somebody else pay for the depreciation.

I'll take Zack Greinke for $20 million, Alex


A prime example of this is Diamondbacks starting pitcher, Zack Greinke.  Greinke is still an effective pitcher, though he is losing gas when it comes to velocity.  Zack has three years left on his current contract at $34.5 million a year.  Zack is good, but not that good.  The Dbacks may be willing to take on part of his salary to move him.  Three years of Greinke at $20 million may be worth the risk.

Here's why


Last year Greinke went 15-11with an ERA of 3.21.  His peripherals were solid.  His FIP was 3.70 and he struck out 8.6 hitters per 9 innings.  In addition, Zack won another gold glove and is a lifetime .220 hitter to boot.  It might pay for an NL contender to kick the tires on Greinke.

Well, he's was better than Chatwood


Last year the idea of Alex Cobb coming to the Cubs was in vogue.  He wound up in Baltimore.  There he went 5-15 with an ERA of 4.90 for the Orioles.  There are some encouraging things about Cobb to be seen if you squint real hard.  He worked 152.1 innings and now has only two years left on a contract that that pays $14 million a year..  I suspect getting out of Baltimore would in itself be a huge boost to Cobb.  I would think he could be had for some mid level prospects.

Then there's the three free agent outfielders


Former high priced free agent hitters can also now be found in a bargain bin.  The Cubs would no doubt love to move Jason Heyward.  Not only is he not hit since signing with the Cubs but his defense is slipping.  Ouch.

The troubles Heyward has experienced with the Cubs may have made the Cardinals gleeful.  That joy has no doubt been somewhat mitigated by Dexter Fowler’s woes after signing with the Cardinals.  No doubt both the Cubs and Cardinals would eat salary to move Heyward and Fowler respectively.

Another formerly perceived free agent plum was Royals outfielder, Alex Gordon.  Gordon’s bat is pretty much at Jason Heyward’s level.  He’s defense is still good, though not what it was at its peak.  Because of Gordon’s history with the team and the fact his contract has a buyout after the 2019 makes it somewhat likely he’ll remain a Royal.

Something else to watch


So, if you’re a MLB GM on a budget check the free agent secondary market.  At least you can limit your losses.




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